Texans head into the heart of winter with crackling-dry grasses underfoot and a forecast that tilts hotter and drier—conditions that fire managers say can turn a spark into a fast-moving blaze. With drought intensifying and winds arriving in bursts, officials warn the risk of large wildfires will stay elevated through the coming weeks.

Drought deepens across the map

More than six out of every ten Texans now live in areas classified at least in moderate drought, and the share of the state mired in extreme drought has surged from about 4% to more than 14% in roughly six weeks, according to Express-News. The dry-down is being felt in metro corridors, too, with urban areas such as San Antonio and Austin among those experiencing heightened dryness, Express-News reports.

La Niña primes a warm, dry pattern

The winter’s backdrop is La Niña, a Pacific Ocean pattern that tends to suppress rainfall and keep temperatures warmer-than-average in Texas. That pattern has been active since mid-October 2025 and is forecast to persist through February 2026 before transitioning toward neutral conditions, according to Houston Chronicle. The combination of less rain and extra warmth dries out fine fuels—especially dormant grasses—making it easier for fires to start and spread, Houston Chronicle notes.

Fire activity already running hot

Fire crews have been busy. From October 2025 through mid-January 2026, the Texas A&M Forest Service responded to 434 wildfires that burned 11,425 acres—a rate of activity 136% above normal for that time period, according to Texas A&M Forest Service. Elevated grass growth from last year’s growing season has left abundant dry fuel on the landscape, increasing the availability of fine fuels that carry fire, Texas A&M Forest Service reports.

Those ingredients—parched fuels, drought-stressed vegetation and periodic wind events—raise the likelihood of large, hard-to-contain fires. “These outbreak events have historically resulted in multiple large, high-impact wildfires that can be difficult to contain and are an immediate threat to public and firefighter safety,” Luke Kanclerz, Head of Predictive Services, said, according to Texas A&M Forest Service.

What residents can do

Nine out of 10 Texas wildfires are sparked by people, a reminder that small choices carry big stakes in dry, windy weather, according to Texas A&M Forest Service. The agency emphasizes reducing human-caused ignition sources—especially when fronts bring gusty winds and very dry air that can turn embers into dangerous runs, Texas A&M Forest Service notes.

Practical implications for households this season include:
- Minimize activities that can create sparks or embers, since most ignitions are human-caused, according to Texas A&M Forest Service.
- Stay especially alert during dry, windy fronts, when fire behavior can escalate quickly, Texas A&M Forest Service reports.
- Expect warmer, drier weather to linger into February as La Niña persists, according to Houston Chronicle.

As winter wears on, the signal is clear: drought is deepening, La Niña favors fewer soaking rains, and fine fuels are primed. Watch for periods of gusty winds and very low humidity, conditions that can flip the switch from routine grass fire to fast-moving threat—risks that officials say they’ll be tracking closely in the weeks ahead, according to Express-News, Houston Chronicle and Texas A&M Forest Service.

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